{"id":725,"date":"2023-01-19T00:06:34","date_gmt":"2023-01-18T22:06:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/i4p-md.org\/?p=725"},"modified":"2023-01-19T00:10:42","modified_gmt":"2023-01-18T22:10:42","slug":"war-in-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/i4p-md.org\/en\/war-in-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"War in Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-black-color\">Internal conflict?<\/mark><br>There seem to be some ever increasing \u201ccracks\u201d in the solidarity of the Russian \u201cSpecial Military Operation\u201d in Ukraine. There has been some \u201cinternal conflict\u201d between the official authorities (Putin), the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) and the Wagner Group backer Prigozhin. Recently this seems to have \u201cescalated\u201d with claims that the Wagner Group forces were solely responsible for capturing Soledar and Putin stating that the recent successes are due to the Russian military. There have been attempts by Prigozhin to emphasise the role that the Wagner Group plays and criticise the Russian MoD and Putin. The Russian MoD is stressing the role of the military whilst not referring to the Wagner Group at all. This \u201cinternal conflict\u201d may develop further and could, potentially, undermine faith in the Russian MoD and Putin himself. The appointment of Gerasimov may be an attempt to restore confidence in the Russian MoD and any successes on the battle front would reinforce this.<br>Front Line<br>Russia needs some successes following the recent Ukrainian successes and this has manifested itself primarily in the East where it seems that the shorter-term Russian objective is to secure Luhansk oblast and at least be able to \u201cclaim\u201d a victory. However, at present the battle is indecisive and it would need a major effort from Russia to be able to \u201cclaim\u201d this victory. For Ukraine it is key that any Russian successes are minimal and \u201ccostly\u201d in terms of personnel and equipment to slow down and prevent any real impetus building up. The potential Russian \u201cmain thrust\u201d may come in late January\/early February when troops that have been undergoing \u201ctraining\/exercises in Belarus may be deployed to augment and enable such an offensive. However, if the West is able to supply Ukraine with sufficient equipment, in time, to blunt this offensive then this could be a turning point in the armed conflict in terms of a \u201cpause\u201d because Russia would need to mobilise more personnel and re-supply with equipment.<br>Russia<br>Putin has ordered the \u201cactivation\u201d of the Russian industrial \u201cwar base\u201d but this will also take time to get up to speed. Critical now is Western supply to Ukraine and the actual time it will take Russia to properly prepare for an offensive. Any repeat of the \u00a3failures\/defeats\u201d earlier incurred may cause so issue in Russia although Putin seems to be still in control of the information space and able to counter any criticism (will this last\u2026doubtful, if more defeats take place, and there are fewer and fewer Generals to sacrifice \u2013 arguably Gerasimov is the last(?)).<br>Ukraine<br>Despite all the \u201cbest attempts\u201d by Russia to demoralise the Ukrainian people \u2013 it is not working. The Ukrainian military keeps demonstrating that even against greater numbers they are capable of inflicting serious losses on the ground. The President has been able to convey that the \u201cbattle for Ukraine\u201d is more than just a conflict between Russia and Ukraine but is a \u201cglobal challenge\u201d from Russia and that Ukraine with the right support and equipment will fight to the last man to preserve its sovereignty and existence. The next few months (3-4) will probably demonstrate whether Russia or Ukraine will gain the upper hand before the \u201dspring thaw\u201d and another consolidation\u2026 then who will likely take the \u201coffensive\u201d will possibly determine many factors for the next 9-12 months. If Ukraine can come through this period, then anything is possible.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The next few months (3-4) will probably demonstrate whether Russia or Ukraine will gain the upper hand before the \u201dspring thaw\u201d and another consolidation\u2026 then who will likely take the \u201coffensive\u201d will possibly determine many factors for the next 9-12 months. If Ukraine can come through this period, then anything is possible.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":722,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[39,45],"tags":[249,248,60,61,251,205,250,247,246],"class_list":["post-725","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","category-top-en","tag-prigozhin","tag-putin-2","tag-razboi-en","tag-rusia-en","tag-russian-military","tag-securitate-en","tag-soledar-2","tag-wagner-group","tag-war-in-ukraine"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>War in Ukraine - Initiative 4 Peace<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/i4p-md.org\/en\/war-in-ukraine\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"War in Ukraine - Initiative 4 Peace\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The next few months (3-4) will probably demonstrate whether Russia or Ukraine will gain the upper hand before the \u201dspring thaw\u201d and another consolidation\u2026 then who will likely take the \u201coffensive\u201d will possibly determine many factors for the next 9-12 months. 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